The Real Exchange Rate Role in a Resourcerich Developing Country [recurso electrónico] : Heterogeneous Effects, Structural Bias and Hysteresis / Gabriel Palazzo
En:
Ensayos Económicos [recurso electrónico]. -- no. 83 (mayo, 2024). --
,
2016. --
Incl. ref.
Incl. graf.
Modo de acceso: World Wide Web. PDF.
Descripción basada en la visualización del recurso el 30/7/2024
Disponible en:
https://www.bcra.gob.ar/Institucional/DescargaPDF/DownloadPDF.aspx?Id=1243
What is the role of the real exchange rate in the performance of the tradable sector in a developing
economy specialised in natural resource-related activities? In this article, we will answer this question,
summarising the main results of three related papers of our own, which focus on the heterogeneity
effects of the real exchange rate (RER) level on the export and import performance of different
sectors in Argentina. The first paper employs the Mean Group method to estimate the RERelasticities by individual products. Its main result highlights a wide range of heterogeneous responses
of exports and imports to RER movements at the individual product level, being RER-elasticities in
differentiated products and labour-intensive manufacturing goods substantially larger than those of
primary and homogeneous products. This finding critically impacts the value of aggregate RERelasticity –weighted by Argentina’s trade basket shares– given that Argentina’s economic structure
is heavily specialised in primary and homogeneous products. The second and third paper takes
advantage of the large devaluation of 2002 to study the development of new tradable sectors during
a period of stable and competitive real exchange rate (SCRER). The third one studies the occurrence
of import substitution episodes. Their main conclusions are: (i) the peak of the sectoral export surge
and import substitution episodes occurred during the SCRER period; (ii) they are positively related to
the labour intensity of sectors and their relatedness to already competitive sectors; (iii) sectors with
export surges episodes show sign of hysteresis effects with a long-lasting increase of their export
level after the end of the SCRER period; (iv) export surge episodes are positively correlated to sectors
that have import substitution episodes during the SCRER period. The three papers highlight that the
RER movements have heterogeneous effects on different sectors and that not every sector can take
advantage of the higher tradable profitability
ISSN: 18506046
1.
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